42
for 2007 is similar to the NEF number of 169,000 PV jobs in 2008 (though the estimates are one
year apart). However, as previously stated, it is not unusual for job estimates to vary based on
many factors, including differences in methodology and metrics, which jobs in the value chain
are being counted, and in this case, for which year and which countries the data are being
provided.
Of the 170,000 global PV jobs reported by UNEP for the year 2007, China held the most jobs,
with 70% of its 55,000 jobs going to the manufacture of PV cells, modules, and processed
silicon. Germany
19
Estimates of U.S. PV jobs for the year 2007 range from 6,000 to 20,000 jobs. EIA reports
employment in the PV manufacturing industry to be about 6,200 jobs in 2007, based on a survey
of PV cell/module manufacturers (EIA 2008a). The EIA number does not include all jobs along
the PV value chain and does not include indirect jobs. By comparison, for the year 2007, ASES
reported 8,700 direct jobs and 19,800 direct plus indirect jobs (ASES and MISI 2008). For the
year 2008, EIA’s survey yielded about 11,250 jobs in PV cell/module manufacturing (EIA
2009). If one used the EIA 2007 and 2008 numbers as an estimate for direct PV jobs, and used a
multiplier of 1.4 indirect jobs for every direct job, then direct plus indirect PV jobs for 2007 and
2008 would be about 14,800 and 27,000 jobs, respectively.
and Spain held approximately 35,000 and 26,000 jobs, respectively, in 2007.
Japan’s PV employment levels were estimated to be similar to Germany’s (Renner et al. 2008).
U.S. PV jobs reported by UNEP were 6,800 direct and 15,700 direct plus indirect jobs for the
year 2006, based on an estimate provided by ASES (Bezdek 2007). However, there is a large
range in the estimates of U.S. PV jobs provided by various studies.
20
Regarding projected employment in the United States, Navigant Consulting published an
employment impact study in September 2008 based on the assumption that the federal
investment tax credit (ITC) would be extended. A month later, the Emergency Economic
Stabilization Act (EESA) of 2008 extended and enhanced the ITC (beyond the assumptions
made in the Navigant study). The Navigant study estimated that 440,000 jobs
21
would be created
in the U.S. solar industry in 2016 if the ITC were extended for 8 years, which is 276,000 more
jobs than would have been created with only a reduced ITC (the residential ITC expiring and the
commercial ITC reduced to 10% at the end of 2008).
22
Of the 440,000 projected jobs in 2016,
110,000 were estimated to be direct, 130,000 indirect, and 200,000 induced (Navigant
Consulting 2008). The breakout by technology is 377,000 PV jobs, 38,000 CSP jobs, and 24,000
solar water heating jobs. The study methodology involved using economic multipliers to
calculate indirect and induced jobs from direct jobs; the multipliers are different for construction
and manufacturing versus O&M jobs (Navigant Consulting 2008, Grover 2007).
23
19
In Germany in 2008, total renewable energy jobs were about 278,000, with direct plus indirect solar industry jobs
at 74,400 or 27% of the total, and about 51,000 of solar jobs attributable to PV (the rest to solar thermal heating)
(Böhme et al. 2009). The increase from 35,000 jobs in 2007 to 51,000 in 2008 reflects 46% employment growth.
20
Job multipliers are described further in the subsequent discussion of the Navigant employment impact study.
21
Includes direct, indirect, and induced FTEs for PV, CSP, and solar water heating.
22
The 440,000 total jobs corresponds to nearly 6.5 GW of solar installations added in 2008 and 28 GW of
cumulative solar installations through 2008 in the extended ITC scenario. By comparison, the reduced ITC scenario
resulted in 9 GW of cumulative installed capacity through 2008, 19 GW less than the extended ITC scenario.
23
For construction and manufacturing, the ratio of indirect to direct is 1.4, and induced to direct is 2.1. For O&M,
the ratios are 0.5 for indirect to direct and 0.8 for induced to direct.